Friday, June 14, 2013

Black Swan Hovering Over the Stock Market

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX rallied above the shelf of support, reconstituting the decline as an a-b-c and not an impulse. The next target for this rally is Intermediate-term resistance at 1632.13. If it stops there, this may be considered a truncated Minute Wave [c].

The rally may even attempt to revisit mid-Cycle resistance at 1643.40, but this is an alternate view. If long, stay close to your computer, since neither of the targets mentioned are assured. This rally may turn on a dime. Believe it or not, this is the most bearish outcome possible, since the next time SPX crosses the 50-day it will likely not stop for a considerable distance, if not until it hits bottom at the end of June.

Another advisor, issuing a “Black Swan Alert” says this, “For the first time in modern history, there is no safe haven investment to shift you funds to. Bonds, gold, commodities, real estate, collectibles, and most non-US currencies are at high risk of substantial declines as investors sell everything to cover margin calls. (Any knee-jerk rise in bonds or gold on flight-to-safety buying can be expected to be very temporary, e.g. a selling opportunity.) Cash is king, and the US Dollar is the king of kings. Cash should be kept in insured savings accounts or short-term Treasury bills. Those with cash at the bottom will have buying opportunities of a lifetime.”

This is the most margined, most optioned market in recorded history. There is nothing to compare its condition to. Nothing.

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