Monday, September 5, 2011

SPY Trends and Influencers September 4, 2011


Last week’s review of the macro market indicators looked like the unofficial last week of Summer would bring Gold ($GLD) to bounce around in its uptrend while Crude Oil ($USO) slowed at resistance and turned lower. The US Dollar Index ($UUP) seemed content to move sideways while US Treasuries ($TLT) were biased lower. The Shanghai Composite ($SSEC) and Emerging Markets ($EEM) were biased to the downside with risk of the Chinese market running a little higher first. Volatility ($VIX) looked to remain elevated keeping the bias lower for the equity index ETF’s $SPY, $IWM and $QQQ, despite the moves higher the previous week, with the $QQQ looking to have the best chance to break the bear flags higher.

The week began with Gold meandering sideways and Crude Oil hitting the breaks at resistance. The US Dollar Index was behaving as anticipated but US Treasuries were finding some support. The Shanghai Composite drifted lower while Emerging Markets caught a bid and moved higher. Volatility tailed off but only marginally as the Equity Indexes SPY, IWM and QQQ rose. And then Friday happened pushing Gold and Bonds higher and Crude Oil and Equities lower. How does this impact the view for the week ahead? Let’s look at some charts.

As always you can see details of individual charts and more on my StockTwits feed and on chartly.)

iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bond Fund Weekly, $TLT

US Treasuries, as measured by the ETF $TLT, consolidated higher for most of the week before breaking to new highs on Friday. The RSI is in bullish territory and currently rising while the MACD has moved back to the zero line and looks ready to cross higher, on the daily chart. The weekly chart shows a strong white candle closing nearly on the high in a bull flag. The RSI is elevated but not extreme at 77.17 and the MACD continues to increase. Look for more upside in Treasuries next week with targets higher on a MM to 120.70 and then 137 from the symmetrical triangle pattern breakout on the weekly chart. Any downside move should find support before 104.80 at either 108 or 106.

SPY Daily, $SPY

SPY Weekly, $SPY

The SPY rose early in the week but fell hard Friday after printing a Tweezers Top with topping tails halting at the 20 day SMA. The RSI on the daily chart turned lower at the mid line and the MACD is waning. On the weekly chart the long upper shadow may be foreshadowing more down side out of the bear flag. The RSI however is rising off of the low and the MACD is improving on this time frame. The trend is lower and look for that to continue next week with any upside move held at 121.50 or 123.40 above that. Any more and the down trend is in question. To the downside if support at 112.4 does not hold then the next levels down for support come at 111.15 and 104 on the way to the MM target of about 95.

Next week looks like the moves that revealed themselves Friday will continue. Gold and US Treasuries are ready to continue higher. Crude Oil looks poised to drop further and the US Dollar Index to move sideways in the top of its range. The Shanghai Composite and Emerging Markets look to continue lower. Volatility looks to continue elevated with the US Equity Index ETF’s SPY, IWM and QQQ ready to continue lower in their bear flags. US Treasuries breaking out and Gold racing higher again could be the catalyst for a break of the bear flags lower. Use this information as you prepare for the coming week and trade’m well.

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